U.S. election forecasts, with every number traced to its sourcehttps://futureballot.com/2026-10-03T07:41:51+00:00FutureBallottag:futureballot.com,2026-10-03:update2026-10-03T07:41:51+00:00

Democrats are favoured to win the House (98%, about 244 Democratic seats); Republicans are favoured to keep the Senate (Democrats 39–46%, depending on independents); Republicans are expected to hold more governorships (about 25 Democratic governors of 50).

<p>Democrats are favoured to win the House (98%, about 244 Democratic seats); Republicans are favoured to keep the Senate (Democrats 39–46%, depending on independents); Republicans are expected to hold more governorships (about 25 Democratic governors of 50).</p><h2>Chambers</h2><table class=ask-table><thead><tr><th>Chamber</th><th>Then</th><th>Now</th><th>D seats then</th><th>D seats now</th><th></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>House</td><td class=num>98%</td><td class=num>98%</td><td class=num>243</td><td class=num>244</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Senate</td><td class=num>39–47%</td><td class=num>39–46%</td><td class=num>50</td><td class=num>50</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Governors</td><td class=num>39%</td><td class=num>39%</td><td class=num>25</td><td class=num>25</td><td></td></tr></tbody></table><h2>Races that moved on new information (37)</h2><table class=ask-table><thead><tr><th>Race</th><th>Rating</th><th>Democratic chance</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td><a href="/races/7f6b293a-f6ed-45dc-8932-46175982e407">OK governor</a></td><td>Lean R → <b>Likely R</b></td><td class=num>20% → 13%</td></tr><tr><td><a href="/districts/74c77c06-a049-4df6-8155-c5707ea151d9">PA-1</a></td><td>Toss-up → <b>Lean R</b></td><td class=num>44% → 39%</td></tr><tr><td><a href="/districts/5942c9b8-b43a-4c1a-8ceb-3d01170c4a7b">CA-22</a></td><td>Toss-up (unchanged)</td><td class=num>49% → 54%</td></tr><tr><td><a href="/races/5421433e-49a1-4ebc-adab-9b6e7cf32e8d">TX senate</a></td><td>Toss-up (unchanged)</td><td class=num>44% → 48%</td></tr><tr><td><a href="/districts/a264a4dd-23b4-40d3-aeb0-90495d6b4a56">MI-4</a></td><td>Lean D (unchanged)</td><td class=num>64% → 68%</td></tr><tr><td><a href="/races/9121c20f-46e6-4012-9792-925a7c428e58">IA senate</a></td><td>Lean R → <b>Toss-up</b></td><td class=num>39% → 43%</td></tr><tr><td><a href="/districts/4082a1d9-7b76-44c9-98de-7b3fe315bffb">NY-1</a></td><td>Lean R (unchanged)</td><td class=num>21% → 18%</td></tr><tr><td><a href="/districts/5dd95787-ac91-403a-bb17-fe5217a8d037">NC-11</a></td><td>Toss-up (unchanged)</td><td class=num>47% → 50%</td></tr><tr><td><a href="/districts/db7ddd7b-50a4-4348-bb25-357b3c683ba7">IA-1</a></td><td>Lean D (unchanged)</td><td class=num>66% → 69%</td></tr><tr><td><a href="/districts/cb78da93-3c72-4b9c-a14a-f76bbde24006">AL-2</a></td><td>Lean D (unchanged)</td><td class=num>67% → 64%</td></tr><tr><td><a href="/districts/479f132e-6b8f-4d2e-bedb-109111e7a5b1">PA-10</a></td><td>Toss-up (unchanged)</td><td class=num>46% → 49%</td></tr><tr><td><a href="/races/276eb156-5c37-476a-8fa1-29e109be16c8">KS senate</a></td><td>Lean R (unchanged)</td><td class=num>24% → 27%</td></tr><tr><td><a href="/districts/19cae14b-bddd-4d6d-a2ab-57e5906b7661">MI-10</a></td><td>Toss-up (unchanged)</td><td class=num>55% → 53%</td></tr><tr><td><a href="/districts/179c39da-f7c4-4da5-9aed-0a987721f147">VA-2</a></td><td>Lean D (unchanged)</td><td class=num>79% → 76%</td></tr><tr><td><a href="/races/c662ab38-cdad-4e39-8602-eda9efe5391b">AK senate</a></td><td>Lean R (unchanged)</td><td class=num>37% → 35%</td></tr><tr><td><a href="/races/5c5f32d9-9188-4c95-86e2-9d1707718788">NE governor</a></td><td>Likely R (unchanged)</td><td class=num>6% → 8%</td></tr><tr><td><a href="/districts/4d55034e-a995-4b2f-b531-3797475da74a">TN-7</a></td><td>Likely R (unchanged)</td><td class=num>12% → 10%</td></tr><tr><td><a href="/races/a9c8a26c-37d1-44fe-89b2-6ed1b8682bb8">GA senate</a></td><td>Likely D (unchanged)</td><td class=num>85% → 87%</td></tr><tr><td><a href="/districts/af3dda7a-f3c8-4d2f-866c-8ba8f8e77481">SC-1</a></td><td>Lean R (unchanged)</td><td class=num>34% → 32%</td></tr><tr><td><a href="/races/4799d889-23a6-491f-a393-465eddfe98e6">IA governor</a></td><td>Lean D (unchanged)</td><td class=num>71% → 74%</td></tr><tr><td><a href="/races/4d4dd44a-39cd-42cb-9f1b-c03bba5404de">MN senate</a></td><td>Lean D (unchanged)</td><td class=num>77% → 75%</td></tr><tr><td><a href="/districts/d2c6c549-ad6b-4fbb-85e0-45068f61c615">MD-1</a></td><td>Likely R (unchanged)</td><td class=num>11% → 9%</td></tr><tr><td><a href="/districts/57a22e02-0fc4-45b1-b5a5-45166c5d309c">WI-3</a></td><td>Lean R (unchanged)</td><td class=num>19% → 21%</td></tr><tr><td><a href="/districts/29c2b0a4-af1e-4b1f-9b31-ee5d6e2e93d5">FL-28</a></td><td>Likely R → <b>Safe R</b></td><td class=num>7% → 5%</td></tr><tr><td><a href="/districts/57882240-8f0e-421f-920b-3e837b7d6df4">OH-9</a></td><td>Likely D → <b>Lean D</b></td><td class=num>86% → 84%</td></tr><tr><td><a href="/races/5c549966-1aa3-4b86-8c6e-e93b38ce4ab8">LA senate</a></td><td>Likely R → <b>Safe R</b></td><td class=num>6% → 5%</td></tr><tr><td><a href="/races/798bd3d9-4d2c-4ed3-81e3-35421a3e9101">AL governor</a></td><td>Safe R → <b>Likely R</b></td><td class=num>4% → 5%</td></tr><tr><td><a href="/districts/e79b312d-e035-4a90-8dc6-934e2620d68f">NV-3</a></td><td>Likely D → <b>Safe D</b></td><td class=num>95% → 95%</td></tr><tr><td><a href="/races/100b4592-465e-4267-838b-78da12e6ac11">FL senate</a></td><td>Likely R → <b>Lean R</b></td><td class=num>15% → 15%</td></tr><tr><td><a href="/races/4e66ced8-ef59-4727-9fa0-d2d42c8b2f4f">CO governor</a></td><td>Safe D → <b>Likely D</b></td><td class=num>95% → 94%</td></tr><tr><td><a href="/districts/61901821-3f83-400f-a970-cf7bdc53d908">WI-5</a></td><td>Likely R → <b>Safe R</b></td><td class=num>5% → 4%</td></tr><tr><td><a href="/districts/4a2b325a-ff0b-4055-b8de-0336a0e6d9cd">FL-6</a></td><td>Safe R → <b>Likely R</b></td><td class=num>5% → 5%</td></tr><tr><td><a href="/districts/61160915-ac7a-45e6-9858-fd463dc956cb">AL-6</a></td><td>Likely R → <b>Safe R</b></td><td class=num>5% → 5%</td></tr><tr><td><a href="/districts/b17ff3f1-d864-4990-8900-51604ec46091">FL-3</a></td><td>Safe R → <b>Likely R</b></td><td class=num>5% → 5%</td></tr><tr><td><a href="/districts/f1fabcfd-1ffc-4cde-9021-cbc9067e1f3b">TX-6</a></td><td>Likely R → <b>Safe R</b></td><td class=num>5% → 5%</td></tr><tr><td><a href="/districts/73a159e7-50ea-42a4-894a-9b2a4248f10a">NJ-9</a></td><td>Safe D → <b>Likely D</b></td><td class=num>95% → 95%</td></tr><tr><td><a href="/districts/d5620488-ae59-442e-9f75-b3bbffe4aa67">CA-45</a></td><td>Safe D → <b>Likely D</b></td><td class=num>95% → 95%</td></tr></tbody></table><h2>Races re-rated by a model change (0)</h2><p>These moved because the forecast's method changed (for the House, the ground-up model replaced the previous one on 1 October), not because anything happened in the race. They are listed so the moves are not mistaken for news.</p>